Mixed Virus Data Has Some Experts Questioning Pace of N.Y.C. Reopening

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo announced recently that New York City would take several more steps toward normalcy: More people would soon be allowed in restaurants; an 11 p.m. curfew at businesses like movie theaters would end; and yoga classes, among other indoor fitness activities, would be allowed to restart.

“Covid’s coming down, vaccine rates are going up,” the governor said at a news conference on Thursday. “Start to look to the future aggressively, and let’s get back to life and living and get that economy running, because it is safe.”

Daily coronavirus cases reported in the city and state appear to have reached a plateau after a post-holiday spike, death rates and hospitalization rates related to the virus are on the decline, and more people are receiving the vaccine.

But not everyone agrees that reopening is safe, partly because the presence of variants that are more contagious, and possibly deadlier, complicate the short-term outlook.

“Our health care team has said very clearly this is not what they would have done,” Mayor Bill de Blasio said on Thursday about the reopening of fitness studios. “The state just doesn’t care.”

So is now a good time to take in a ballgame or break out your dusty yoga mat? Opinions are divided.

The case for reopening

For business owners and state officials, the case is clear: just look at the numbers.

On Feb. 25, New York City had a seven-day average of 4,043 cases per day, according to data from the city. This week that number has dipped to an average of less than 2,700. There’s been a similar decline in new hospitalizations: to a seven-day average of 178 per day this week, from an average of 326 in late February.

These dips have occurred in the weeks since the governor reopened more businesses in the city, like movie theaters, expanded indoor dining to 35 percent capacity and began allowing a limited amount of people to attend professional sporting events.

“As the governor has said, we see reopening as a series of valves, and if the reality on the ground changes, we will take swift action to tighten up restrictions,” said Jack Sterne, a spokesman for the governor.

Mr. Sterne said that the state had not linked any coronavirus outbreaks to gyms since they reopened everywhere in the state last year, or fitness studios, which have been allowed to operate outside of the city for months.

Also, he pointed to the state’s increasing number of vaccinations. As of this week, more than two million people have received at least one dose of the vaccine in the city.

But aren’t fitness studios more dangerous?

Reopening fitness studios has been a particular sticking point for city officials, who contend that packing people into a room where they are breathing hard and could sweat through their masks is a hothouse for the virus.

Katie Muehlenkamp, who owns two Bar Method studios in Brooklyn, noted that fitness classes have been open in the rest of the state and in neighboring states for months, often with far less-stringent restrictions than those they will face in the city.

“I am absolutely confident that we can provide as safe an environment in fitness studios as that…