Phillies vs. Astros score: Houston takes World Series lead with nail-biting Game

The Houston Astros are one win away from the second World Series title in franchise history. The Astros hung on to beat the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 5 at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday night (HOU 3, PHI 2), giving Houston a 3-2 lead in the best-of-seven series. Game 6 and, if necessary, Game 7 will be played at Minute Maid Park this weekend.

In the first inning it appeared Game 5 would be a chaos game with a lot of runs and lots of craziness, but that chaos game never materialized. Game 5 became a quasi-pitchers’ duel with plenty of traffic and squandered opportunities on both sides. The two teams went a combined 2 for 18 with runners in scoring position. 

Here are a few takeaways from Game 5 with a quick look ahead to Game 6.

1. There was a huge momentum swing in the first inning

If you’re a believer in momentum in sports, the first inning was a massive swing in Game 1. Jose Altuve opened Game 5 with a double and wound up at third base on Brandon Marsh’s error. The next batter, Jeremy Peña, drove him in with a single through the drawn-in infield to give the Astros a 1-0 lead. The Phillies had the infield in in the first inning! You don’t see that often. 

Two batters into the game, it was clear Noah Syndergaard would not be out there long. He ran the count full on Yordan Alvarez and the Astros had Peña running on the 3-2 pitch. Alvarez swung through a high fastball and J.T. Realmuto threw out Peña for the rally-killing strike ’em out, throw ’em out double play. This throw was picture perfect:

Had Alvarez taken the high fastball, the Astros have runners on first and second with no outs, and Syndergaard is on the ropes. Instead, the bases were empty with two outs, and Syndergaard had new life. He struck out Alex Bregman to end the inning and Kyle Schwarber picked up his pitcher with a second pitch leadoff homer in the bottom of the first.

Schwarber’s leadoff homer was the 26th in World Series history and the first ever by a Phillie. It was also Schwarber’s third career postseason leadoff homer, tying Jimmy Rollins and Hall of Famer Derek Jeter for the most in history. He is one of the best high fastball hitters in the game and he was ready for Justin Verlander’s elevated heater there.

Thanks to the double play and Schwarber’s homer, the Astros went from having a 1-0 lead and threatening to put a crooked number on the board to the game being tied 1-1 in the span of six pitches. Let’s look at some basic win probability:

• Alvarez takes ball 4 (runners at first and second, no outs): Phillies have 34.6 percent chance to win Game 5
• After strike ’em out, throw ’em out double play: Phillies have 47.3 percent chance to win Game 5
• After Schwarber’s game-tying homer: Phillies have 59.4 percent chance to win Game 5

That’s an enormous win probability swing, especially in such a short period of time (three batters and six pitches). The Phillies went on to lose Game 5 anyway, but that first inning prevented Houston from running away with it early. The game remained close and competitive right down to the final pitch thanks in large part to the double play and Schwarber’s homer in the first inning.

2. Houston’s no-hit…