Israel election exit polls suggest Netanyahu on brink of winning narrow majority

Jerusalem
CNN
 — 

Former Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu was on the verge of making a triumphant return to office in Israel, as initial exit polls suggested he may have scraped a narrow majority in the country’s fifth national election in less than four years.

If exit polls are correct – a big if – Netanyahu and his political allies appear to be on pace to win most seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.

As expected, first exit polls from the country’s three main broadcasters suggested late on Tuesday that no party won enough seats to govern on its own, meaning that it will be necessary to build a coalition government.

The exit polls projected pro-Netanyahu parties would take 61 or 62 of the parliament’s 120 seats. The alliance is comprised of Netanyahu’s Likud party, Religious Zionism/Jewish Power, Shas and United Torah Judaism.

The alliance backing the current acting Prime Minister Yair Lapid, comprised of Yesh Atid, National Unity, Yisrael Beiteinu, Labor, Meretz and Ra’am, was poised to take 54 or 55 seats, according to the exit polls.

The Arab party Hadash/Taal, which is unlikely to support either side, was set to secure four seats, the exit polls suggested.

The election was marked by the highest turnout since 2015. The Central Election Committee said 71.3% of eligible voters cast their ballots, which was more than in any of the last four elections that produced stalemates or short-lived governments.

Netanyahu spent the closing weeks of the campaign barnstorming the country in a truck converted into a travelling stage encased in bulletproof glass. Pro-Netanyahu ads – and ads depicting his opponents looking shady – plastered the sides of buses.

It’s not yet certain that Netanyahu has made a comeback, after he was outmaneuvered following last year’s elections by Lapid.

The exit polls are only projections based on interviews with voters on Tuesday, not official results. The results can – and have in the past – change throughout the election night. Official results may not be final until Wednesday or even Thursday.

Once official results are in, President Isaac Herzog will invite the politician he deems most likely to be able to form a government to open coalition negotiations.

A Netanyahu return to the head of government could spell fundamental shifts to Israeli society.

A Netanyahu government would almost certainly include the newly ascendant Jewish nationalist Religious Zionism/Jewish Power alliance, whose leaders include Itamar Ben Gvir, once convicted for inciting racism and supporting terrorism.

If the exit polls turn out to be correct, the far-right alliance would more than double its representation in the Knesset. The grouping had six seats in the outgoing parliament; exit polls project that they have won 14 or 15 seats this time around.

When asked by CNN on Tuesday about fears he would…