Was the OPEC+ decision a game-changer in US-Gulf relations? | Haitham El-Zobaidi

The first thing that is likely to come to one’s attention when looking at the reactions to the OPEC+ decision to cut oil production is that the responses are mostly American. Virtually all US officials and cabinet members, from the president down, have had something to say about the matter.

Of course, the United States is the top oil producer in the world. It is also the leading hydrocarbon consumer. But years ago, it stopped importing crude oil from abroad after US companies invested heavily in the shale industry, modern technology helped revive old wells and allowed the expansion of seismic surveys to reach new fields. The United States is self-sufficient in oil, even selling its surplus production to foreign nations.

But Washington is not self-sufficient politically. Even before the Cold War ended and the United States became the sole superpower of the world, Washington used to impose its will on others on many global political and economic issues. With the collapse of the Soviet Union and Iraq’s defeat in the Kuwait War, this evolved into a hegemonic tendency. On top of the political, military, industrial, financial and cultural clout it acquired since the early nineties, the US has accumulated new leverage with the communications and information technology revolution. Certain aspects of that power came as fait accompli to others while other aspects were deservedly the result of long-term US investment in education and innovation. For more than two decades, the United States has had the final word in determining the world’s fate. Then came the major financial shock of 2008 and the subsequent US and Western downward spiral, starting with military and strategic setbacks following the invasion of Iraq before falling beneath the weight of financial crises.

No other major Western countries have really complained about the OPEC+ decision, nor did East Asian countries, who are the largest consumers of Gulf oil. But the US has not stopped complaining and threatening to react. There are clear political concerns behind Washington’s complaints. The US mid-term congressional elections are just around the corner and the Biden administration got itself into the trouble by linking the prices of petrol and diesel to the administration’s approval ratings. The price that an American pays to fill his fuel tank has become a benchmark for the Democrats’ ability to continue to control the US Congress or not.

But the most important political dimension goes beyond the predicament of the current US administration. The last ten years have witnessed a fraying of the United States’ ability to impose its global hegemony. Various American miscalculations caused major crises in more than one region of the world. Before the Ukraine war, which Moscow sees as having been provoked by the expansion of NATO to its borders and before the Taiwan crisis, motivated essentially by the US desire to contain China’s global rise, Washington failed to properly address the Iranian threat in the Gulf.

Besides trying to tinker with Middle East stability by putting an illusory Islamic democracy concept into the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood during the earthquake of the Arab…