What you need to know about North Korea’s missile test over Japan

Seoul, South Korea
CNN
 — 

North Korea fired a ballistic missile without warning over Japan on Tuesday for the first time in five years, a highly provocative and reckless act that marks a significant escalation in its weapons testing program.

The missile traveled over northern Japan early in the morning, and is believed to have landed in the Pacific Ocean. The last time North Korea fired a ballistic missile over Japan was in 2017.

This marks North Korea’s 23rd missile launch this year, including the most ballistic missiles fired in a single year since leader Kim Jong Un took power in 2012. By comparison, Pyongyang conducted four tests in 2020 and eight in 2021.

Here’s what you need to know about North Korea’s missile tests.

Tuesday’s missile flew a distance of about 4,600 kilometers (2,858 miles), with an altitude of some 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) and a top speed reaching Mach 17 – meaning 17 times the speed of sound, according to Japanese officials.

By way of comparison, the US island territory of Guam is just 3,380 kilometers (2,100 miles) from North Korea.

Two experts told CNN these flight details suggest the missile fired was likely a Hwasong-12 – an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) last tested in January.

“This is a missile that North Korea started testing in 2017 … So it’s not really a new missile,” said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at CNS.

But, he added, its launch is significant because of the distance it can travel.

“North Korea has a bunch of missiles that are shorter range, and that wouldn’t go over Japan – but they have a small number of missiles that could make that journey,” he said.

North Korea usually fires its missiles into waters off the coast of the Korean Peninsula – making this flight over Japan considerably more provocative, for both practical and symbolic reasons.

This kind of unannounced launch could pose risks to aircraft and ships as the missile travels down to its target, since they would have no prior warning to avoid the area.

And if the test had failed, causing the missile to fall short, it could have endangered major population areas. The missile flew over Japan’s Tohoku region, according to Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, which is home to more than 8 million people.

In the past, US planes have been grounded as a ‘precaution’ following North Korean missile launches. And in late November 2017, several commercial jet pilots were reported to have seen what appeared to be the re-entry of a North Korean missile as it approached the Sea of Japan.

However, Lewis emphasized, such risks are statistically low, especially that far out in the Pacific and that high above Japan as it flew overhead. Mostly, it’s an escalation simply because “it’s provocative to fire a missile over your neighbor.”

“For the Japanese especially, it feels…