The Primer: Week 4 Edition (2022 Fantasy Football)

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Derek Brown, normally the sole author of the Primer, wrote up the first five games of this week’s edition per usual — and then he came down with Covid.

So the final 11 games were written by Andrew Erickson, Pat Fitzmaurice, and Matthew Freedman.

We hope your Week 4 is better than Derek’s — and we (selfishly) hope he feels better next week.

Check out all of our Week 4 fantasy football content

MIN vs. NO | CLE vs. ATL | WAS vs. DAL | SEA vs. DET | TEN vs. IND | CHI vs. NYG | JAC vs. PHI | NYJ vs. PIT | BUF vs. BAL | LAC vs. HOU | ARI vs. CAR | NE vs. GB | DEN vs. LV | KC vs. TB | LAR vs. SF |

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Kirk Cousins: Cousins might currently be the QB14 in fantasy, but he’s easily a top-12 option this week. The on-paper matchup looks difficult for Cousins at first as New Orleans has held quarterbacks to the sixth-lowest success rate and 13th-lowest EPA per dropback. When we dig deeper, this is a plus matchup for Cousins. New Orleans has converted into a zone-heavy defense, preferring to drop back and keep everything in front of them. Their starting corners have been deployed in zone coverage on 59-64% of their snaps. They have also given up on rushing the passer with extra defenders. New Orleans has the fourth-lowest blitz rate and ranks 30th in pressure rate. Cousins will have ample time to dice up the Saints’ zone. Over the last two seasons, he’s ranked top 14 (14th, seventh) in completion rate and top-ten in passer rating (third, 10th) against zone coverage.

Jameis Winston: Winston has been performing as a solid QB2 (QB17 in fantasy points per game) through the first three weeks, but is doubtful for this contest. Andy Dalton will start in his place. The Red Rifle ranked 29th in aDOT and yards per attempt (6.4) in 2021 as a member of the Chicago Bears. Although it’s worth noting that he faced the Vikings defense in his last start in Week 18, 2021— throwing for 325 passing yards, one TD and two interceptions. The Vikings are a middle-of-the-road defense this year against the pass at first glance, but that’s paper thin. They are 16th in success rate and 15th in EPA per dropback, which don’t look woeful. However, they are 29th in DVOA against short passing and have yet to be tested extensively by a good deep ball thrower. Aaron Rodgers only attempt two deep balls against them (zero completions), while Jalen Hurts completed one of his two deep attempts for a 53-yard touchdown. The Vikings were 24th in DVOA against deep passing last year. Considering Dalton’s drastic difference as a deep-ball passer compared to Winston, I’d imagine…