Hurricane Ian to intensify, watches posted for Florida west coast

Hurricane Ian maintained top winds of 75 mph Monday morning as Florida’s Gulf coast braced for the first direct hit on the continental United States of the 2022 hurricane season.

The storm is expected to strengthen quickly, becoming a major hurricane with winds of up to 120 mph by Monday night when it’s expected to approach landfall in western Cuba, the National Hurricane Center said.

Hurricane watches went up on Florida’s west coast Monday morning, from north of Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.

Southeast Florida remains outside the cone projecting the likely course of the storm’s center. But winds of tropical force and hurricane force can occur outside the cone, depending on how close to the center comes to the edge of the cone.

South Florida has a 35-45% chance of tropical-force winds, meaning winds of at least 39 mph, the National Weather Service said in a Monday morning report. The earliest time these winds could arrive is Tuesday morning, although Tuesday night or Wednesday morning is more likely.

“Heavy rain bands with wind gusts and squalls to near tropical storm force are expected over all of South Florida tomorrow through Wednesday,” the weather service said. “Rainfall flooding and isolated tornadoes are possible across all of South Florida during this time frame.”

Although the storm’s wind field is small, with tropical force winds extending 90 miles from its center, the storm is expected to expand as it strengthens, placing a larger area at risk of high winds. These winds can rip off tree branches, knock down power line and blow objects off the ground, the weather service said.

“While a direct landfall to South Florida is unlikely at this time, hazardous conditions can extend well away from the center of the system” the weather service said.

As of 8 a.m. Monday, Ian was closing in on Grand Cayman and Cuba with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, making it a Category 1 storm. Ian was 90 miles west-southwest of Grand Cayman and 275 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba. Both Cuba and Grand Cayman are under hurricane warnings.

The National Hurricane Center said Ian is forecast to rapidly into a major hurricane by Monday night, meaning Category 3 or above. If it were to reach major hurricane status, it would be the season’s second major Atlantic hurricane. Fiona, which dissipated Sunday as a remnant low, was 2022′s first major hurricane.

[ MAP: See the latest forecast map for potential Hurricane Ian  ]

Experts predict Ian’s maximum sustained winds could ultimately reach up to 140 mph this week, which would make it a Category 4 hurricane.

Most of Florida continued to brace for the uncertain path of the intensifying storm.

In addition to the hurricane watch for part of west Florida, a tropical storm warning was in effect from Seven Mile Bridge to Key West, including the Dry Tortugas, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours.

On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands on Monday, and near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday….