Europe holds its breath as Italy expected to vote in far-right leader | Giorgia

On Sep 25, 2022

Italians are voting in an election that is forecast to deliver the country’s most radical rightwing government since the end of the second world war, and a prime minister ready to become a model for nationalist parties across Europe.

A coalition led by Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, a party with neofascist origins, is expected by polls ahead of the vote to secure a comfortable victory in both houses of parliament while taking between 44 and 47% of the vote.

Meloni’s party is also set to scoop the biggest share of the votes within the coalition, which includes the far-right League, led by Matteo Salvini, and Forza Italia, headed by Silvio Berlusconi, meaning she could become Italy’s first female prime minister.

The coalition’s expected victory, however, raises questions about the country’s alliances in Europe as the continent enters a winter likely dominated by high energy prices and its response to Russian aggression in Ukraine. Meloni has sought to send reassuring messages, but the prospect of her as prime minister is unlikely to be welcomed in Paris or Berlin.

Germany’s governing Social Democratic party warned last week that her win would be bad for European cooperation. Lars Klingbeil, the chairman of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD, said Meloni had aligned herself with “anti-democratic” figures such as Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán.

Earlier this month, Meloni’s MEPs voted against a resolution that condemned Hungary as “a hybrid regime of electoral autocracy”. Meloni is also allied to Poland’s ruling nationalist Law and Justice party, the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats and Spain’s far-right Vox party.

The 45-year-old firebrand politician from Rome received an endorsement from Vox towards the end of her campaign, and in response said the two parties were linked by “mutual respect, friendship and loyalty” while hoping victory for Brothers of Italy would give Vox some thrust in Spain.

“Meloni has an ambition to represent a model not only for Italy, but for Europe – this is something new [for the right in Italy] compared with the past,” said Nadia Urbinati, a political theorist at New York’s Columbia University and the University of Bologna. “She has contacts with other conservative parties, who want a Europe with less civil rights … the model is there and so is the project.”

Mattia Diletti, a politics professor at Rome’s Sapienza University, said Meloni would win thanks to her ability to be ideological but pragmatic, something that has allowed her to pip the French far-right leader, Marine Le Pen, to the post of becoming western Europe’s model for nationalism.

However, she is unlikely to rock the boat, at least at the beginning, as she wants to secure continuing flows of cash under Italy’s €191.5bn (£166bn) EU Covid recovery plan, the largest in the EU. The coalition has said it is not seeking to renegotiate the plan, but would like to make changes.