Hurricane center ups odds for 2 systems, 2 others dwindle

The Atlantic has two weather systems Tuesday morning with potential to become the next tropical depression or storm of the season, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The first is a broad and elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, according to the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook.

“Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, some gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week,” said senior hurricane specialist Daniel Brown.

The system is expected to move west then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph in an area adjacent to the northern Leeward Islands. NASA officials noted its potential path that has to consider the tropical threat now that the Artemis I rocket missed its Monday opportunity to launch from Kennedy Space Center. Its next flight opportunities are during windows on Friday, Sept. 2 and Monday, Sept. 5.

The NHC gives this system a 50% chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm in the next two days and an 80% chance in the next five.

The second system is a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa that emerged Tuesday morning, which is accompanied by a broad area of low-pressure forecast to move west to west-northwest in the next few days.

“The system could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic waters during the next few days,” Brown said. “By late this week, the disturbance is forecast to move over cooler waters and further development is not likely after that time.”

Either way, the system could bring heavy rain to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands by Wednesday.

The NHC gives it a 20% chance of formation in the next two days and a 40% chance in the next five.

If any of the systems form into a named tropical storm, it would become Tropical Storm Danielle. After that, the hurricane season’s names are Earl, Fiona and Gaston.

The 2022 hurricane season has had only three named storms and none since early July. It’s possible the season could go the entire month of August without a named system. Despite the recent silence in the tropics, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration still predicts an above-average year with 14 to 21 named storms as of an early August forecast.

The 2020 hurricane season set a record with 30 named systems, while 2021′s season was the third most active with 21 named systems. An average year calls for 14 named storms.

The hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, with the traditional peak of hurricane season running from mid-August to mid-October.

Jpedersen@orlandosentinel.com