Can Liz Truss Exceed Low Expectations? Thatcher Did

As the leadership contest was launched, she was variously described by Tories (mostly anonymously) as odd, gaffe-prone or, at best, a poor facsimile of Margaret Thatcher. The leader a big chunk of her party seems to want is – wait for it – Boris Johnson. 

Current polls say her party will be chucked out at the next election and that Keir Starmer, the Labour leader who has never exactly sent electoral pulses racing, would make the better prime minister. The economic picture is grim with soaring energy prices putting millions of households into fuel poverty and low or negative growth. The National Health Service’s annual winter crisis has come early and will only get worse; when the NHS is ailing, the government is seen to be failing. 

Still, it’s worth suspending disbelief. It’s possible to tally all of those obstacles, to be deeply skeptical of some of the policies Truss outlined during her campaign (as I am) and see little in her record that marks her out for greatness. But it wouldn’t be the first time a strong or effective leader has been grossly underestimated at the start. Maybe she can rise to the occasion.

Thatcher, who had been regarded as the “token woman” in Ted Heath’s government, was considered an unexceptional minister and nearly fired. Angela Merkel’s long record may now need some revising in light of Russia’s war in Ukraine, but she was a colossus on the European stage for many years. She was also deeply underestimated and often written off early on by the political establishment and many in her own party. On the other hand, Barack Obama was compared to John F. Kennedy; greatness was expected. David Cameron, the Etonian who seemed to glide into power, was billed as the guy who would restore the Tories’ electoral prospects after three consecutive defeats and modernize conservatism. 

What signs do we have that Truss might surprise on the upside? Already, she has blown away expectations of a close fight against former Chancellor Rishi Sunak. If confirmed as leader, she won’t only have defeated her opponent but neutralized him. That’s no small feat given that for a long time he was the favorite to replace Johnson.

Yes, she was pitching to a very limited audience in the campaign, but she showed discipline and canny messaging; she connected with Conservative voters in debates and hustings events and was able to correct course on the few occasions she stumbled. A good leader surrounds themselves with the right…