Rosenthal: Julio Rodríguez’s complex contract with Mariners offers different

Less than five months into his major-league career, Rodríguez, 21, already is assured of enough money to make his family comfortable for generations. He likely will spend his entire career in Seattle, an outcome that most fans will view as good for baseball. Yet some player representatives believe that, like so many other youngsters who sign pre-arbitration extensions, Rodríguez sold himself short.

The average fan will find such talk ridiculous, and for good reason. The $209.3 million is Rodríguez’s worst-case scenario, what he will end up with only if his career goes decidedly off track. More likely, the Mariners will exercise a club option of at least eight years after 2028, guaranteeing him at least $320 million over 16 years and probably more because of escalators in his contract based on MVP finishes.

J-Rod deal with Mariners complete, source says. $210M guarantee for 12 years, not 14 as initially reported. $15M signing bonus now and $105M over seven years from 2023 to ‘29. Rest of guarantee is in five-year, $90M player option. Mariners must decide on club option after ‘28.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) August 27, 2022

No fan should want to see a player short-changed, not when the owners are far wealthier and stay in the game much longer. But the Rodríguez contract, like Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 14-year, $340 million deal with the Padres, is a departure from the typical club-friendly, pre-arbitration deals the players’ side finds so loathsome. In fact, the contract structure, as negotiated by Rodríguez’s agent, Ulises Cabrera of Octagon, represents a new paradigm for young players, one that might help them land more attractive deals in the future.

How, then, could any player representative possibly object, especially when almost every 21-year-old would consider the Rodríguez deal irresistible? The answer lies with a different player who is 23, considerably more accomplished than Rodríguez and strong-willed enough to say no to a 15-year, $440 million offer without his agent even countering.

That player, of course, is Juan Soto.

Soto’s rejection of $440 million prompted his trade from the Nationals to the Padres. He and his agent, Scott Boras, seem almost certain to seek at least $500 million, and over a shorter term that would increase the average annual value to a record level.

Maybe Soto gets such a deal from the free-spending Padres as soon as this offseason. Maybe he waits until after 2024, when he will reach free agency entering his age 26 campaign. Only one thing seems certain: Soto plans to set a new standard for the sport.

The highest average salary for a position player currently is Mike Trout at $35.5 million. The higher luxury-tax thresholds in the collective-bargaining agreement should ensure an increase in that number, perhaps even to $50 million. Rodríguez, if he had gone year to year, could have followed Soto’s lead, striking it rich on the open market after 2027, prior to his age 27 season.

If Soto gets $500 million, perhaps Rodríguez might have secured $450 million, on top of the tens of millions he already would have earned from the higher minimum salaries in the new CBA, pre-arbitration…