Democrats improve outlook on House amid better political environment

On Aug 28, 2022

While Democrats acknowledge they still face major hurdles, there has been an unmistakable mood shift, according to interviews with candidates, strategists and officials

Updated August 27, 2022 at 7:39 p.m. EDT|Published August 27, 2022 at 7:01 p.m. EDT

Storm clouds are seen over the U.S. Capitol dome in July 2022 on Capitol Hill in Washington. (Tom Brenner for The Washington Post).

Comment

Democrats are voicing growing confidence about limiting losses in the House and potentially even salvaging their majority in the midterm elections, with candidates and allied groups making moves to capitalize on a backlash to abortion restrictions, signs of improvements in the economy and opposition to Donald Trump.

After months of gloomy predictions, Democrats are investing anew in flipping Republican seats. They are also directing more money to protect a roster of their own endangered incumbents — a list party officials said noticeably shrank since the spring. And they are trying to frame contests around abortion rights, putting Republicans on the defensive for strict opposition to the procedure in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade.

Democratic fundraisers have reported an uptick in donations over the last month, and at least one of the party’s biggest donors is considering pouring more money into House races, according to people with knowledge of the situation.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is privately voicing more confidence about the House landscape and opportunities to go on offense, people familiar with the conversations said, while President Biden’s White House has grown more optimistic in its outlook. One Biden adviser reacted with umbrage at a private meeting with reporters this month to the suggestion that Republicans were likely to win back control of Congress.

GOP prospects narrow in House as Democrats overperform in early contests

While Democrats acknowledge they still face major hurdles, there has been an unmistakable mood shift, according to interviews with candidates, strategists and officials. What was once a party privately bracing for dozens of losses is now one reassessing the House landscape and shifting to a more offensive posture with about 10 weeks left before Election Day.

“I definitely feel a different energy than even three months ago, but certainly six months ago,” said Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) one of the year’s most vulnerable incumbents. Seeing a “narrow” path to keeping the majority, Slotkin added: “Six months ago I think people were putting safe bets on a real blowout. And I don’t see that happening.”

One House Democratic strategist, who like others interviewed for this story spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly, was blunter in assessing what it would take to win the 218 seats required to control the House, in a chamber of 435 members. “The range has shifted. The world we were living in before, if we ended up in the 200s that was pretty good,” said the strategist. “Now it is much more that the majority is in play. We have a path. It is there.”

Democrats are defending only a five-seat majority in the House, putting Republicans well within…

Democrats improve outlook on House amid better political environment

While Democrats acknowledge they still face major hurdles, there has been an unmistakable mood shift, according to interviews with candidates, strategists and officials

Get more stuff like this in your inbox

Get more stuff like this
in your inbox