How Italy’s Political Drama Forced an Election

1. What’s unusual about this election? 

It’s the first held in the fall in the country’s history, a time when Parliament is busy drafting the budget law for the following year. The campaign is compressed into two months. It will also be the first time Italy will vote to elect a Parliament with a curtailed number of lawmakers, making competition to win a seat as aggressive as ever. Draghi stepped down after the broad coalition he had been leading since early 2021 dissolved and three of his key allies pulled their support. A skilled technocrat who was navigating the country through an inflationary crisis, Draghi is widely credited with saving the euro when he was head of the European Central Bank.

2. What led up to this? 

The crisis was initially triggered by the Five Star Movement, the anti-establishment group that surged to power in 2018 and has been criticizing Rome’s military support for Ukraine. It snowballed into a spectacular set of political moves as Matteo Salvini’s League and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia sensed political opportunity from fresh elections, pulling out of the coalition and leading Draghi to resign. Other issues driving the split have been how to allocate financial support for Italians hurt by rising prices, how to push through reforms to free up Italy from red tape and boost competition, and changes aimed at making the tax system more fair — all topics likely to drive the campaign.  

Though Draghi will remain in office until a new government takes over, his powers have been curtailed. His government will still have the ability to implement reforms essential for unlocking about 200 billion euros ($204 billion) in aid from the European Union and to represent Italy at international events, but his authority as a leading figure in Europe’s response in Russia’s war in Ukraine has been curbed. Draghi’s government won’t be able to pass new and non-essential legislation, and to make new appointments for state-controlled companies except for those strictly necessary. During the coming weeks, Italy’s political scene will be dominated by parties laying out their campaigns and deciding whom they’ll team up with for the vote. 

4. Who’s likely to win?

Right-wing parties have the most to gain, and this is also the reason why they were quick to take advantage of the crisis triggered by Five Star. Based on current polls, a rightist coalition is expected to win the most seats, provided its members can stick together. The coalition includes Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, as well as the League and Forza Italia,…