Asia shares turn lower, no dodging recession risks

People pass by an electronic screen showing Japan’s Nikkei share price index inside a conference hall in Tokyo, Japan June 14, 2022. REUTERS/Issei Kato

SYDNEY, June 20 (Reuters) – Asian shares were unable to sustain a rare rally on Monday as Wall Street futures shed early gains amid worries the U.S. Federal Reserve would this week underline its commitment to fighting inflation with whatever rate hikes were needed.

The euro also softened slightly after French President Emmanuel Macron lost control of the National Assembly in legislative elections on Sunday, a major setback that could throw the country into political paralysis. read more

Trade was thinned by a U.S. holiday and Nasdaq futures soon went flat, having been up more than 1% at one stage, while S&P 500 futures eased 0.2%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures fell 0.6% and FTSE futures 0.3%.

The S&P 500 fell by almost 6% last week to trade 24% below its January high. Analysts at BofA noted this was the 20th bear market in the past 140 years and the average peak to trough bear decline was 37.3%.

Investors will be hoping it does not match the average duration of 289 days, given it would not end until October 2022.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) lost 0.8% and Tokyo’s Nikkei (.N225) 1.4%.

Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) held steady perhaps aided by news President Joe Biden was considering removing some tariffs on China. read more

Looming over markets are concerns major central banks will have to tighten so aggressively to contain runaway inflation that they will tip the world into recession.

“Market volatility has remained elevated with the VIX index seeing the highest weekly close since late April, a theme that goes beyond equities with a spike in FX and rates volatility alongside wider credit spreads,” said Rodrigo Catril, a strategist at NAB.

“At this stage it is hard to see a turn in fortunes until we see evidence of a material ease in inflationary pressures.”

Relief seems unlikely this week with U.K. inflation figures expected to show another alarmingly high reading that could push the Bank of England into hiking at a faster pace.

FED GOES UNCONDITIONAL

A whole chorus line of central bankers are also on the speaking calendar this week, led by a likely hawkish testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s to the House on Wednesday and Thursday.

The Fed last week vowed its commitment to containing inflation was “unconditional”, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Saturday said he would support another hike of 75 basis points in July. read more

“With rapidly slowing growth momentum and a Fed committed to restoring price stability, we believe a mild recession starting in Q4 is now more likely than not,” warned analysts at Nomura.

“Financial conditions are likely to tighten further, consumers are experiencing a significant negative sentiment shock, energy and food…