2022 NHL playoff preview: Hurricanes vs. Rangers

The Metropolitan division is a gauntlet. It took seven games apiece on either side to figure out who would play who, but we have our answer: Carolina and New York. Fitting that it’s the two top seeds, but the margins were razor thin along the way. Both series were expected to be close and they played out exactly to script.

For a while it didn’t look like Carolina would need seven games to dispatch Boston, but it was a true homer series and the Hurricanes were blessed to have home ice. As for the Rangers, it looked extremely unlikely they would be here at all after going down 3-1 in their series against the Penguins. But some injuries on the other side created a path that they were able to capitalize on.

Now comes the matchup to determine who represents the division in the conference finals. This one doesn’t look as close as the other two.

Odds

Carolina holds the edge in this one as expected for the higher seed. The Hurricanes enter the series with a 64 percent chance of winning which is either too high if all you care about is the standings or too low if you watched any of the Rangers games from the first round. The Rangers were absolutely dominated, barely squeezing past a team that started a third-string goalie for five of seven games — but they still won as they have all season.

The Rangers are an enigma in that regard and it feels likely that a series against Carolina will play out in a similar way: a maddeningly lopsided scoring chance counter that’s undone entirely by goaltending. That’s their edge and it works for them, but it’s far from a reliable one as the Rangers were mere inches away from losing the first round in five games. The way Carolina wins games is much more dependable.

Given Carolina’s recent history, there is some concern that a series against the best goalie in the league is a recipe for disaster for a team that sometimes struggles to actually capitalize on their chances. If there’s any goalie that can steal a series it’s the one wearing blue between these two teams, and if there’s any team that’ll let them it’s the one wearing red. Carolina is favored for a reason and wins this series two-thirds of the time, but there’s a reason it’s not more lopsided. This won’t be a cakewalk.

Season Stats

The Hurricanes’ play in front of the blue paint is a major reason why they’re favored in this series — and they’re no pushover in the crease, either.

Carolina was a top-five team in generating offense in the regular season, and they converted on their chances at a high rate. But the Corsi Canes’ play took a hit below the surface against Boston, but their results exceeded expectations and their regular season results.

Offense was a weakness of the Rangers’ throughout the season, but their finishing ability hid some of their gaps. Against Pittsburgh, they increased their shot rate but still struggled in the quality areas. New York’s goals rate ticked up in their seven-game series, but it’s still shy of Carolina’s.

Now match those offenses up with each team’s defense.

The Rangers improved play in their own zone after the deadline, but all of that fell apart in the postseason….