National Intelligence Director Avril Haines Warns Vladimir Putin Could Take

The U.S. intelligence community has assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is prepared to dig his heels in over the war in Ukraine and let it drag on for some time—and along the way, Putin might resort to extreme measures to ensure Russia wins in the end, top U.S. spies warned Tuesday.

The next steps Putin might take include escalating domestic measures that could contribute to the war effort, such as instituting martial law, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Avril Haines warned in a Tuesday briefing.

“The uncertain nature of the battle… combined with the reality that Putin faces a mismatch between his ambitions and Russia’s current conventional military capabilities likely means the next few months could [be] more unpredictable and potentially escalatory,” DNI Haines told senators. “The current trend increases the likelihood that President Putin will turn to more drastic means, including imposing martial law, reorienting industrial production, or potentially escalatory military actions to free up the resources needed to achieve his objectives as the conflict drags on.”

The assessment, which Haines delivered to lawmakers on Capitol Hill Tuesday, comes as Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its 76th day. Russian forces have turned their attention to taking Eastern Ukraine in recent weeks after failing to take the capital, Kyiv, in the early days of the war due to a series of logistical and planning issues.

And as the Russian military has shifted its attention to the Donbas, or eastern portions of Ukraine, the fighting is beginning to reach somewhat of a “stalemate,” the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Director, Scott Berrier, said Tuesday.

“I would characterize it as the Russians aren’t winning, and the Ukrainians aren’t winning, and we’re at a bit of a stalemate here,” Berrier said.

Putin doesn’t view the Donbas as the final stand in Ukraine, though, Haines warned, suggesting that more carnage might be on the way. Putin views it as just a “temporary” focus so that the Russian military can “regain the initiative,” Haines said.

“We are not confident that the fight in the Donbas will effectively end the war,” Haines said. “We assess President Putin is preparing for prolonged conflict in Ukraine during which he still intends to achieve goals beyond the Donbas.”

The assessment that Putin might escalate comes a day after Victory Day in Russia, when Russians celebrate the victory in World War II—a day U.S. and Ukrainian officials alike had warned Putin would seize on to mobilize more troops for the war. Victory Day came and went without any public mobilization, however.

But Russians are starting to see signs that Putin might be secretly putting in the legwork to pull in more resources to make the war effort function beyond the near term, just as Haines is warning Putin has his sights set on doubling down. Moscow Metro employees have been threatened in recent days that they might be sent to the war in a possible mobilization “if there are not enough soldiers to be sent to the ‘special operation,’” one of the employees’ wives told the Coalition for Conscientious Objection to Military…