Why are international flights so expensive – and when will they get cheaper?

Flight bargains will be few and far between for Kiwis eager to jet off overseas, travel experts warn, with reduced airline capacity combined with soaring fuel prices resulting in increased airfares.

Air New Zealand has raised the prices of its international airfares by 5 per cent, joining airlines overseas which have recently added surcharges on their tickets to cover the higher cost of jet fuel.

“Due to the rising cost of fuel and the added impacts of inflation generally across all parts of business, we had to review our pricing,” the airline said in a statement.

“Unfortunately, Air New Zealand cannot absorb these increases and so airfares on international routes increased accordingly by circa 5 per cent.”

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Board of Airline Representatives of New Zealand executive director Justin Tighe-Umbers said the fuel price increase had been “the last thing the airline industry needed”, on top of already-high border processing costs.

Meanwhile, airline capacity was still down more than 80 per cent.

“What that means is if particular flights are full, that can certainly push up charges on airfares.”

Despite the Government last week bringing forward the dates that tourists can return – starting from April 12 for Australians, and May 1 for travellers from visa-waiver countries – many airlines servicing the long-haul routes likely wouldn’t start returning until October, ahead of the peak season, Tighe-Umbers said.

“That’s because there’s a six-month planning process for airlines to lock in their flights,” he explained.

“We might see a little bit of extra capacity here and there, but generally speaking, aircraft are locked into routes already until October. We’re not expecting to see a big surge in capacity until after that.”

His advice to those wanting to travel overseas in the short-term was to “get in early”.

“I think with the volatility this year, the upward pressure is greater than the opportunity for airfares to come down short of those specials that are put on.”

Independent aviation commentator Irene King said capacity remained the biggest issue, more so than fuel, as it could take several years for airlines to return to New Zealand.

“I still think we’ll be lucky to get over 60 per cent of the previous capacity after this year,” she said.

“It will slowly go up. But I don’t think we’re going to see a full recovery until 2025/2026.”

There may still be decent deals available for travel at softer times, or for closer-to-home destinations like the US or the South Pacific.

“But carriage into Europe is going to ramp up [over summer], and I think we’ll be quite shocked about the fares.”

But Flight Centre…