US intel indicates Russian officers have had doubts about full scale Ukraine
Three of the sources said those officials include intelligence and military operatives.
The officials have also grumbled about their plans being discovered and exposed publicly by western nations, two of the sources said, citing the intercepted communications.
There is no evidence that these officials are opposed to the overall plan, or would revolt against Putin’s orders, two of the sources said. Another source familiar with the US intelligence noted that Russia has a professional military that would be expected to effectively carry out Putin’s orders.
Still, Russian defense personnel believe it will be difficult, a senior European official said. “In the assessments we see it is clear some people on the [Russian] defense side are not really understanding what the game plan is,” the official said. The official added that the assessments suggest the defense personnel think “it’s a very difficult game plan to stand up.”
Another of the sources familiar with the intelligence said that the way the Russian planning has evolved and expanded over the last two months suggests that the concerns have been heard by senior Russian officials.
Another possibility, the officials said, is that Putin decides upon a multi-pronged operation, sending in forces from several directions across Ukraine to quickly fracture the Ukrainian military’s ability to fight as a cohesive force — a classic Russian military strategy.
“We’ve long said that Putin continues to add to his options and capabilities, and we’ve been equally transparent about some of the moves we believe he intends to make to justify some sort of military action,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told CNN Monday. “We’re also going to continue to help Ukraine better defend itself with both lethal and non-lethal assistance.”
US officials publicly and privately say they still don’t know whether Putin has decided to attack, and what form it would take if he did. That is largely because the US’ visibility into Putin and his inner circle is still extremely limited, the sources told CNN.
The US has fairly solid insights into the Russian military and foreign ministry, the sources familiar with the intelligence told CNN. Many of those personnel have been involved in the current buildup near Ukraine, which has afforded the US better-than-usual visibility into Russian planning. But the US intelligence community is still largely cut off from Putin and the most senior Russian officials, who are themselves typically isolated from the lower-level operatives carrying out Kremlin orders.
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