Russia willing to go to war and incur sanctions over Ukraine: analysts
A serviceman of the Teykovo Missile Formation (54th Guards Missile Division) takes part in combat patrol and anti-sabotage drills involving RS-24 Yars road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile systems.
Vladimir Smirnov | TASS | Getty Images
Russia is willing to risk “real financial harm” and all-out war to achieve its political objectives in Ukraine, defense analysts have said.
Moscow has denied that it plans to invade neighboring Ukraine, a former part of the Soviet Union, despite having assembled around 100,000 troops at the border.
Russia is demanding that Ukraine never be permitted to become a member of the NATO military alliance and has said it wants the organization to roll back its presence in Eastern Europe.
Last week, the U.S. delivered a response to Moscow’s demands that repeated previous refusals to concede to Moscow’s demands. Diplomatic talks are expected to be held between the two countries at a U.N. Security Council meeting on Monday.
The British government claimed earlier this month that it had evidence the Kremlin was seeking to install a pro-Russian leader in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, a peninsula in the south of Ukraine with an ethnic Russian majority.
A spokesperson for the Russian government was not immediately available to comment when contacted by CNBC.
More steps before an invasion
Samuel Cranny-Evans, a research analyst at defense and security thinktank the Royal United Services Institute, said it was likely there was still a way to go before Russia invades Ukraine.
“This isn’t an invasion force yet,” he told CNBC in a phone call. “Russia has very deliberately built [this situation] in such a way that we will know when it is an invasion force.”
He added that what we have seen so far was “just the first step,” and now that things like air defense assets, convoys of fuel and ammunition — and the personnel to man all of the equipment — were being moved to the border, Russia was taking its second step.
A satellite image shows Russian battle groups and vehicles parked in Yelnya, Russia January 19, 2022.
Maxar Technologies | via Reuters
“There are, I would argue, quite a few steps to go through before we actually get to Russian troops moving onto Ukrainian soil,” he said. “We might see standoff tactics like cruise missile test launches and cyber warfare attacks, a bit of unrest and assassination in Ukraine, perhaps.”
Cranny-Evans speculated that the first act of war would most likely be long-range missile strikes that targeted key military and industrial infrastructure in Ukraine.
“It’s all about showing that if you continue down this road of not doing what we want, we have the ability to target your values,” he told CNBC. “It isn’t about Russian men killing Ukrainian men and women, it’s about targeting the Ukrainian way of life.”
Mathieu Boulegue, a research fellow at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia program agreed, telling reporters during the think tank’s press briefing on Friday that the Russians did not yet appear to be ready to invade.
A rocket launcher shoots missiles during tactical and special exercises with scouts of the Guards Tank Army of the Western Military District…
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