Opinion | Why Trump Is Headed for the Ditch Once Again

But over the past week, a series of things have transpired that make Trump’s indestructability seem less axiomatic, his dominance over the GOP and his renomination for president less of a sure thing. The difference this time is that Trump’s error is not something he has done — and can talk his way out of — but something that is being done to him. Trump has allowed a serious challenger and former disciple inside the party to gain unchecked influence. His social media sparkle, snuffed by Big Tech, has not been rekindled yet by his own social media startup (Truth Social) nor has it glowed in the B- and C-list social outfits like Parler, Gab, Rumble or Gettr. And no less a hard-right personage as former Trump acolyte Ann Coulter has judged him as finished and brought evidence to defend her thesis.

Trump has never been weaker or more vulnerable to replacement than today. He might Houdini his way out of trouble once more. You can never count him out. But there has never been a better moment for the mice to bell the Trump cat than there is today.

That mouse, who has grown unchecked, could be Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, of course. As Jonathan Martin and Maggie Haberman reported earlier this week in the New York Times, the DeSantis plot to unking Trump and take his place has only recently boiled to the top of Trump’s consciousness. Why won’t DeSantis say the “magic words” — I won’t run against Trump — the former president has taken to repeatedly saying. Why doesn’t he genuflect to me like other Republicans? Trump’s justified paranoia about a popular Republican who appeals to his base and might supersede him could evolve into a production of Julius Caesar as updated to modern times by Joel Coen. (Kathryn Hunter could cast DeSantis as Brutus.) The closest Trump has come to a direct criticism of DeSantis so far was only implied. In a recent speech, Trump called politicians who won’t reveal their vaccine booster status, as Trump has (he’s boosted), as “gutless.”

The DeSantis takeover move is made possible by Trump’s flagging support among Republicans. As Trump has moved out of the public eye (and the social media orbit) he has become less vital to party members. Today, reporter Byron York of the conservative Washington Examiner noted that a new poll shows that fewer Republicans are describing themselves more as Trump supporters (36 percent) than as party supporters (56 percent). This is Trump’s worst showing ever in that poll, indicating generous room for a different Republican, perhaps even a Trumpish one to displace the original. (Not everybody sees an opportunity for DeSantis. The Bulwark’s Jonathan V. Last, a Never-Trumper, writes this week that the ex-president would crush DeSantis, whom he calls a “phony” who will join in the morgue all the other Republicans who have run against Trump.)

This move away from Trump comes as the Republican Party is actually gaining followers, presumably in reaction to the Biden presidency. Mike Allen of Axios points to a new Gallup Poll that more voters now identify as or lean toward Republicans than Democrats. Based on those two polls, it’s easy to…