Philippine President Duterte’s China pivot hasn’t reduced South China Sea

More than five years on, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s Beijing-friendly postures have not tamed China’s assertiveness in the disputed South China Sea — and the next Philippine leader should be bolder in challenging Beijing, said a political and risk analyst.

The Philippines will hold general elections to vote for a new president in May as Duterte’s six-year term comes to an end. Duterte has sought closer ties with Beijing and declared that he was willing to set aside his country’s territorial contest with China in the South China Sea.  

China and its Southeast Asian neighbors including the Philippines have been embroiled in territorial disputes in the South China Sea for decades.

China claims almost the entire waterway. In the last few years, China built artificial islands in the sea, while Chinese fishing fleets and maritime militia vessels swarmed areas internationally recognized as belonging to other countries.    

“The most favorable scenario for the Philippines would be a change in the mindset of the elected leader in May 2022,” said Peaches Lauren Vergara, head of the strategic intelligence practice at Amador Research Services, a research and advisory firm.

The next Philippine president should steer away from “the defeatist attitude displayed by the current leadership,” and more firmly challenge China’s claims, Vergara wrote in a December report published by the Asia Society Policy Institute.

CNBC has reached out to the Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs, as well as the Chinese embassies in Singapore and the Philippines, for comment on the report. None have replied at the time of publication.

With just months left in Duterte’s presidential term, China’s promised infrastructure investments to the Philippines have fallen short of expectations, while tensions between Manila and Beijing are rising again in the South China Sea, according to a December report by think tank International Crisis Group.

“Many in the Philippines are increasingly sceptical of rapprochement with China if it entails giving up claims to various disputed maritime features,” read the report.

The South China Sea, a resource-rich waterway, contributes around 27% of the Philippines’ total fisheries production, said Vergara in the Asia Society Policy Institute report. A group of scientists have reportedly warned that Chinese activities in the disputed waters threaten the fishing industry.

Meanwhile, tensions with China have hindered Philippine oil exploration efforts in the sea.

“This has serious repercussions for the country’s ability to achieve energy security as its main source of natural gas for electricity supply — Malampaya — nears depletion,” Vergara said.

Some in the Duterte government have more vocally protested the presence of Chinese vessels in parts of the South China Sea that were internationally recognized as belonging to the Philippines.

In May, Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr. directed an unusually aggressive tweet at…