China isn’t about to invade Taiwan. But the two sides are on a dangerous path

On Oct 16, 2021

Beijing has cast waves of aggression toward the island ever since the former Nationalist government fled there at the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949.

But that doesn’t mean there’s no reason for alarm.

Beijing is piling military, economic and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan to achieve its longterm goal of “One China” — a single united country including the island.

And experts worry that if Chinese Communist Party leaders believe they have no hope of a peaceful “reunification,” they may turn to more drastic measures to fulfill their ambitions.

Chinese President Xi Jinping after delivering a speech at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, on October 9, 2021.

China’s ‘red lines’

In the first five days of October, more than 150 planes from China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force entered Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone, the area surrounding the island where Taipei says it will respond to any incursions.

The maneuvers began on China’s National Day on October 1, a holiday commemorating the founding of the People’s Republic and a natural moment for acts of military posturing. But that wasn’t the only reason for the record-breaking drills — they capped months of heightened tensions between China and Taiwan.

Experts said the deteriorating relations are due to two things — an increasingly assertive and confident Taiwan, sparked by warming relations between Taipei and Washington, and domestic Chinese politics.

Although Taiwan and China have been separately governed for more than 70 years, Beijing views the democratic island of 24 million people as part of its territory and has regularly stated its aim of “reunification,” despite the fact Taiwan has never been ruled by the Chinese Communist Party.

To try to force Taiwan’s hand, Beijing has spent the past 40 years trying to isolate the island by chipping away at its diplomatic allies with offers of support — Taiwan now only has full diplomatic relations with just 15 countries.

But despite Beijing’s best efforts, Taiwan has gained more global influence since early 2020.

China-Taiwan tensions are raising fears of a conflict. In Taipei, however, people don't seem worried

Countries around the region are defending Taiwan’s right to self-governance like never before. Japan’s Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi told CNN that Tokyo would “respond accordingly” to any attempt by China to take Taiwan by force, while Australia’s Foreign Minister Marise Payne committed to forging stronger ties with the island.

And the support extends beyond Asia-Pacific. For example, in September, Lithuania became the first European nation in decades to allow Taiwan to have a diplomatic mission under its own name.

Taiwan’s closer relations with the United States have emboldened it on the world stage. Under the Trump administration in 2020, Taiwan welcomed some of its highest profile US visitors in decades, and to Beijing’s frustration, the Biden administration has not reversed that trend.

J. Michael Cole, a Taipei-based senior fellow with Global Institute Taiwan, said the growing tensions between the US and China had also helped Taiwan boost its profile.

“Taiwan realizes that the international community is becoming a little bit more accommodating to Taiwan, more understanding of the role that Taiwan as a liberal democracy has to play in this growing clash of ideologies,” he said.

Rather than a prelude to an invasion, the increased Chinese…

China isn’t about to invade Taiwan. But the two sides are on a dangerous path

China’s ‘red lines’

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