Could Gavin Newsom Beat Trump in 2024? His California Status Could Be His

It’s been 40 years since an American presidential candidate won in a landslide and a hypothetical 2024 matchup between former President Donald Trump and Governor Gavin Newsom would likely be a hard-fought race.

Having survived the effort to remove him from office in a decisive recall victory, Newsom is headed for a successful bid for reelection in 2022. If he wins, that’ll be the end of his gubernatorial road, as he can’t run for another term, and with the necessary resume and charisma behind him, Newsom’s name has entered the conversation as a potential formidable presidential candidate.

However, the same quality that could help him win voters over—his leading the most populous state—could also be his downfall.

“People look at him and see him looking like your classic, good looking, smart, technocratic Californian,” Spencer Critchley, a communications adviser on both of former President Barack Obama‘s campaigns, told Newsweek.

A born and bred Californian, Newsom will have to fight the narrative that he’s out of touch with the plight of those in middle America. California lost a seat in Congress for the first time because of population decline and while the percentage of Californians who actually left is small, according to data from the state, an estimated 180,000 people moving away fuels the narrative that residents are leaving California en masse.

As a state that’s been considered a mecca since the mid-1800s Gold Rush, the population decline has opened a door to attacks on California’s wildfires, which have prompted power outages, homelessness and the high cost of living.

The question of why people are leaving California would likely be on the minds of voters in middle America and swing states, including the key one of Pennsylvania, according to Mark Weaver, a Republican strategist. The answer, Weaver predicted, would be Newsom, which poses a problem for him as a presidential candidate who needs to win over voters in those states.

Being a “coastal elitist” wasn’t a problem for Trump, a born and bred New Yorker. A billionaire who lived in a New York City penthouse, Trump connected with the “forgotten men and women” of America in rural areas. In 2016, he was the candidate who understood their problems and had the potential to solve them.

It was also one of the strengths that drew voters in states Trump won in 2016 to President Joe Biden. With a “natural gift” for communicating with people in an authentic, emotional way, according to Critchley, Biden marketed himself to voters as a moderate Democrat who understood the needs of the middle class, having grown up in a Scranton, Pennsylvania, family that felt the effects of a local economic downturn.

Newsom would have to tap into that same emotional connection Biden evoked with voters, according to Michael Hopkins, senior vice…