Analysis: Arabs ease Assad’s isolation as U.S. looks elsewhere


  • Relations warm between Syria and Jordan, UAE, Egypt
  • Economic, political factors drive Arab opening to Assad
  • S.Arabia could be weighing similar move, analyst says
  • U.S. keeps sanctions in place, but focused on China

BEIRUT, Oct 10 (Reuters) – While Bashar al-Assad is still shunned by the West who blame him for a decade of brutal war in Syria, a shift is under way in the Middle East where Arab allies of the United States are bringing him in from the cold by reviving economic and diplomatic ties.

The extension of Assad’s two-decade-old presidency in an election in May did little to break his pariah status among Western states, but fellow Arab leaders are coming to terms with the fact that he retains a solid grip on power.

The chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan has firmed up a belief among Arab leaders that they need to chart their own course. Anticipating a more hands-off approach from Washington, now preoccupied by the challenge of China, Arab leaders are driven by their own priorities, notably how to rehabilitate economies hammered by years of conflict and COVID-19.

Political considerations also loom large in Arab capitals such as Cairo, Amman and Abu Dhabi. These include their ties with Assad’s most powerful backer, Russia, which has been pressing for Syria’s reintegration, and how to counter the influence carved out in Syria by Iran and Turkey.

Turkey and its support for Sunni Islamists across the region – including a swathe of northern Syria that remains outside Assad’s grasp – is of particular concern to Arab rulers who can make common cause with Damascus against Islamist groups.

But while the signs of Arab rapprochement with Damascus are growing – King Abdullah of Jordan spoke to Assad for the first time in a decade this month – U.S. policy will remain a complicating factor.

Washington says there has been no change in its policy towards Syria, which demands a political transition as set out in a Security Council resolution. U.S. sanctions targeting Damascus, tightened under President Donald Trump, still pose a serious obstacle to commerce.

But in Washington, analysts say Syria has hardly been a foreign policy priority for President Joe Biden’s administration. They note his focus on countering China and that his administration has yet to apply sanctions under the so-called Caesar Act, which came into force last year with the intent of adding to the pressure on Assad.

After being warned against dealing with Damascus by the Trump administration, Arab states are pressing the issue again.

“U.S. allies in the Arab world have been encouraging Washington to lift the siege on Damascus and allow for its reintegration into the Arab fold,” said David Lesch, a Syria expert at Trinity University in Texas. “It appears the Biden administration, to some degree, is listening.”

It marks a shift from the early years of the conflict when Syria was expelled from the Arab League and states including Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates backed some of the rebels that fought Assad.

BREAKING DOWN BARRIERS

The decade-long conflict, which spiralled out of a popular uprising against Assad during the “Arab Spring”, has killed hundreds of thousands of people,…



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