Crunching the COVID-19 Numbers: Has NYC started flattening the curve again?
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Though the Delta variant continues to target the unvaccinated in New York City by the thousands, signs in the latest city Health Department data indicate that the latest wave of COVID-19 infections may be starting to crest.
The 7-day average daily number of positive cases fell from 1,906 on Aug. 13 to 1,859 on Aug. 16. In that same period, the 7-day hospitalization rate also dropped from 108 on Aug. 13 to 89 three days later.
Overall, the city’s 7-day positivity rate over the past 28 days — one of the Health Department’s “key indicators” of the COVID-19 crisis — sat on Aug. 22 at 3.82%, which the agency described as “stable.” The daily 7-day positivity rate itself slid from a peak of 3.99% on Aug. 12 to 3.81% on Aug. 18.
It’s enough to give one local lawmaker — Brooklyn City Council Member Stephen Levin — some “cautious optimism” that the city’s third major COVID-19 wave in 18 months may finally be ebbing.
“This is [because] the vaccination has been consistently going up,” Levin tweeted on Sunday morning. “I give @NYCMayor [Bill de Blasio] credit for pushing the envelope on mandates.”
The latest data from @nycHealthy gives me cautious optimism-daily case totals seem to have peaked in the past couple weeks-this is bc the vaccination has been consistently going up. I give @NYCMayor credit for pushing the envelope on mandates. & pls, if u haven’t yet, get vaxxed! pic.twitter.com/hwzjO074cq
— (((Stephen Levin))) 🟣 (@StephenLevin33) August 22, 2021
The vaccination effort in New York City continues to be robust as the de Blasio Administration began offering $100 incentives at city-run vaccine centers and issuing mandates for municipal workers and, as of last week, indoor restaurants, gyms and entertainment venues. On Aug. 10, the 7-day average number of people vaccinated stood at 24,629; that was up from from the July 10 7-day average of 16,910.
Low vax = more infections
The highly infectious Delta variant sparked the third major wave of COVID-19 cases across the city since July. The strain accounts for 94% of all COVID-19 positive diagnoses over the past four weeks, the city Health Department reported.
The latest data also shows that 14 areas of the Big Apple had 7-day positivity rates exceeding 6% between Aug. 12-18.
Four areas of Staten Island are in the top 10: Tottenville (10307, 8.65%, 39 new positive cases); Charleston/Prince’s Bay/Woodrow (10309, 7.45%, 84 new cases); Annadale/Rossville (10312, 7.41%, 143 new cases); and Graniteville/Mariner’s Harbor/Port Ivory (10303, 7.09%, 42 new cases).
Two areas of coastal Queens top the list, including the summer hamlet of Breezy Point on the western tip of the Rockaway Peninsula (11697, 12.64%, 33 new cases) and Howard Beach/Hamilton Beach/Lindenwood (11414, 8.66%, 71 new cases).
One major problem in the top 10 areas looks to be vaccine hesitance and…
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