Why Republicans couldn’t kill Biden’s relief bill

President BidenJoe BidenPentagon takes heat for extending Guard’s time at Capitol Booker to try to make child tax credit expansion permanent Sullivan says tariffs will not take center stage in talks with China MORE and congressional Democrats just passed the largest expansion to the American welfare state in a generation. While the direct stimulus checks have garnered much attention, the American Rescue Plan establishes a guaranteed income for parents, extends wage subsidies to childless adults, and makes ObamaCare cheaper and more accessible for millions of citizens to name just a few of the major provisions. Democrats passed the $1.9 trillion bill despite having a slim majority in Congress that left no room for error.

How were Democrats able to expand welfare programs while holding together such a fragile coalition, especially one that includes more fiscally conservative members like Sens. Joe ManchinJoe ManchinThe Hill’s 12:30 Report – Presented by Johns Hopkins University – Biden sets optimistic tone for summer Democrats debate fast-track for infrastructure package Overnight Health Care: Biden to outline path to more normal Fourth of July | Biden signs .9 trillion relief bill into law | Manchin and Collins to support Becerra MORE (D-W.Va.) and John Tester (D-Mont.) from Republican states?

Our recent analysis of public opinion about people’s attitudes toward government assistance shows that Democrats can gain the support of conservative voters for assistance to the poor through smart policy design. And there is no better example than the American Rescue Plan (ARP). As President Biden and the Democrats were quick to point out, the ARP enjoyed the support of around 70 percent of the American public, including a majority of Republican voters. Democratic senators from purple and red states were able to highlight the bipartisan support for the bill as a rationale for their vote. So, while the vote in Congress was not bipartisan, the public’s support for the bill was.

The Democrats were able to generate conservative support for the bill by designing the most progressive components of the bill as a tax credit rather than a direct check. According to a new CNN poll, the tax credit portions of the bill are the most popular with voters. In particular, the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Child Tax Credit (CTC) are targeted toward the working poor, and disproportionately help families of color. The Biden proposal for expanding these two programs is projected to cut the child poverty rate in half. This expansion would provide the most help to Black and Latino families, who fall below the poverty line more often than whites.

It might seem at first glance that Republicans could have used these two programs to target the bill for attack. After all, “welfare” and other federal assistance programs for the poor are often unpopular with the general public, especially with Republican voters. Recipients of government aid are often stereotyped as lazy, undeserving, or simply trying to cheat the system. So, what makes the CTC and EITC different from other welfare type programs?

In our new book, “The Other Side of the Coin,” we find that social…