Simulating NFL free agency 2021

The franchise tag window has closed, which means 2021 NFL free agency is just around the corner. How will it all play out, and who will sign where? We mocked how offers and deals might go down for 19 of the top names at multiple positions.

Our NFL Nation reporters served as GMs for their teams and made offers for key free agents while trying to stay within that team’s salary-cap restraints. The object wasn’t to “win” but rather to accurately reflect how a team might approach negotiations. For instance, the cap-strapped Saints, Chiefs and Rams didn’t throw around many offers here, but the Patriots, Jaguars and Jets all had money to spend — and it showed. Once the offers were all in, national NFL reporter Dan Graziano played the role of player rep, mulled the proposals and “signed” each of the playmakers to a new deal.

So who is headed to a new team, and who re-signed for another go with his current franchise? Who earned the big bucks on the open market? Let’s predict this offseason’s free agency, which officially opens on March 17. Here are some hypothetical offers and landing spots for 19 of the open market’s best players.

Jump to:
QB | RB | WR | TE | OL
Edge | CB | S

2020 team: Saints | Free-agent rank: 44

Saints’ offer: Two years, $12 million ($6M guaranteed and up to $18M in incentives based on starts, wins and achievements) … This opportunity to replace Drew Brees in one of the NFL’s top offenses is why you came here last summer, and we have shown that we genuinely believe in your potential. — Mike Triplett

Chargers’ offer: Two years, $8 million ($8M guaranteed) … We need a good backup for Justin Herbert, and you’re the guy we’re targeting. Come join an up-and-coming roster in Los Angeles. — Shelley Smith

Texans’ offer: One year, $12 million ($12M guaranteed) … We don’t know if Deshaun Watson will be playing for us in 2021, so here’s a chance to win the starting quarterback job and make this your team. — Sarah Barshop

The decision: Winston picks the Texans

Man, this is a tough call between New Orleans and Houston. (Sorry, Chargers. I don’t want to be a backup again.) Houston is giving more guaranteed money, and if Watson really won’t play there again, this is a chance to start for a year and hit the market again next year while I’m still under 30 years old. But what happens with Watson is the big pivot point here. — Dan Graziano

2020 team: Packers | Free-agent rank: 8

Packers’ offer: Three years, $28.5 million ($9.5M guaranteed, $8M signing bonus and $1.5M base salary) … It’s more money in 2021 than if we had used the franchise tag ($8.6M) but less of a salary-cap hit for us since we can spread out that signing bonus. You might have a hard time finding a lot of guaranteed money for an undersized running back, so why not stay where you have had all of your success? — Rob Demovsky

Cardinals’ offer: Two years, $13 million ($9M guaranteed and incentives for hitting 1,000 yards rushing, making the Super Bowl or getting a Pro Bowl nod) … Come to Arizona and be the No. 1 back of the Cardinals’ running game….